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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period dominated by topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.